So here’s the part I’d normally paper over. I ran the screener this morning. Two hundred patterns, same as every morning. I didn’t find anything I’d put my own money in.

What’s still open

Two positions, and neither of them is a call. I never put these in the letter, so they don’t go on the tab — but you’re not getting a “watching from the sidelines” story from a man who’s carrying risk. Here’s the risk. I opened them on Friday.

Short EUR/USD, average 1.14031. Flat, give or take a rounding error.

Short UBER, 1,500 shares from 66.71. Currently green by a few hundred

P911 — Porsche. Still watching. Still hasn't cleared the lid. Two weeks of no trigger is not a failed call, it's a call doing exactly what a call does when the price doesn't come to it.

A note on the numbers you'll see in the screenshots: the notional on a currency position looks enormous next to a stock position and isn't comparable. Dollar figures here are mine, not a template. The number that matters is the percentage of your own account, and that one's yours to work out.

The full post-mortem is Monday's job. Today the only thing worth saying is the number, and the number is above.

• Entry: now (mine is 141.10)

• Target: ~151

• Stop: H2 close below 135

• Why: weekly pic is also promising

• Position: Long 400@141.10

GPK — Graphic Packaging . Long is brewing.

• Entry: waiting for action, maybe upper band break

• Target: ~12.7

• Stop: H2 close below 10.5

• Why: box trade

• Position: none

LIN — Linde. Quick short.

• Entry: now (mine is 512.38)

• Target: ~493

• Stop: H2 close above 528

• Why: wedge with bull trap

• Position: Short 50@512.38

AUPH — Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. Another quick short.

• Entry: now (mine is 15.45, maybe will increase)

• Target: ~14

• Stop: H2 close above 16.40

• Why: bull trap

• Position: Short 1000@15.45

KHC — closed, and I broke my own sheet.

The printed plan said 27.50. I sold the lot at an average of 26.83, well short of it. That’s +6.8% from my 25.11 fill, or +1.0R against the 23.40 stop. If you took it at the printed 24.80 entry, you did better than I did: +8.2%, +1.45R.

Now the part I’d rather leave out. On Thursday I wrote that I’d probably add to this one. I didn’t add. I sold. It was a defensive play, the market crashed so the logic was to quit at the maximum fear. Well, exit is more of an art than the entry.

Two things follow. It goes on the tab as what I did, not what I said I’d do. And if KHC runs to 27.50 this week, then I got out early and left money behind — you’ll read that here too.

MTCH — open, and finally above the line.

TXRH — open.

P911 — never triggered.

New Calls

BBNX — Beta Bionics. One of my favorite structures.

• Entry: now (mine is 17.07)

• Target: ~19

• Stop: H2 close below 16.8

• Why: just a quick technical pattern I like, bulls are in control

• Position: Long @17.07 1150 stocks.

PCRX — Pacira BioSciences. Another box trade.

Let’s see the action first. Now in wait & see mood.

SPSC — SPS commerce. And another box trade.

• Entry: now (mine is 64.21)

• Target: ~72

• Stop: H2 close below 59.5

• Why: we left the box space, no super action but the chances exist

• Position: Long @64.21 300 stocks.

PODD — Insulet Corporation. Possible reversal not just a catchy trade.

• Entry: still possible (mine is 161.10)

• Target: ~177 (the first one, reconsider further)

• Stop: H2 close below 153

• Why: some kind of reversal, I like the structure

• Position: Long 200@161.10

  MANH — Manhattan Associates. Not the best box but tradable.

  

• Entry: now (I try to buy, will update)

• Target: ~186.5

• Stop: H2 close below 151.5

• Why: some kind of reversal, I like the structure

• Position: none

  STNE — StoneCo Ltd. Boring but promising.

• Entry: now (mine is 11.28)

• Target: ~13

• Stop: H2 close below 10.8

• Why: btw not the strongest setup

• Position: Long 1000@11.28

  ENOV — Enovis. Boring but promising.

• Entry: now (mine is 27.15)

• Target: ~33

• Stop: H2 close below 27

• Why: The chances are we break the downtrend but earnings loom

• Position: Long 600@27.15

P911 — Porsche. Still inside the box. Hasn’t cleared the lid, hasn’t broken the floor. No trigger, no position, nothing to do but wait. Boring is exactly right.

TXRH — Texas Roadhouse. Doing the thing I wanted to see — churning up under the top of the range instead of rejecting off it. That’s the tell. But “encouraging” isn’t “triggered.” Still flat, still watching.

MTCH — Match. The one I was early on. Last week I owned it from 38.77 — under my own stated entry — and said so out loud: early is just wrong wearing a nicer coat. Well, the level finally printed. MTCH closed above 40, and I added a little yesterday . So the thesis is confirming. It is not closing. Confirmed and done are different words for a reason. |1800 @ 38.89 PnL 2719 USD|

KHC — Kraft Heinz. Around 25.5, above my 25.11 fill. Green on the screen. I’ll probably add today or tomorrow. And green on the screen is worth precisely nothing until it’s green on the tab. |2000 @ 25.11 PnL 802.64 USD|

That’s the update. Two haven’t triggered, two are open and unsettled, and not one has touched a target or a stop. So here’s the veteran talking to himself: paper gains four days in are a mood, not a number. The tab reads zero and it keeps reading zero until these actually close.

There’s more on the screener I like. That’s Monday’s problem — if it still looks like anything by then.

Same frame every week: what I’m watching and how I think about it, not advice. Every call logged, the green and the red. Ask me Monday.

First one. Quick word on what this is, then we go to work.

Every Monday: the setups I’m actually watching — ticker, entry, target, stop, one line on why. Then the tab — every call from the week before, settled. Hit, stopped, or never triggered. Nothing edited, nothing quietly deleted.

I’ve been getting things wrong since 2006. The difference between me and the man in your feed with the 90% win rate is that you’ll get to watch me be wrong.

The Tab — Week Zero

Nothing here. First letter, nothing to settle yet.

Which makes this the only week I get to look good for free. From next Monday this section carries every call above — hit, stopped, never triggered — with the running total underneath. Red weeks get the same font size as green ones. If a setup dies, it dies in public.

Record: 0 calls closed. 0.0R. Starts today.

The tab starts at zero. The account doesn’t.

Two of the four names below, I’m already long. Not “watching.” Long, with money.

• KHC — 2,000 shares, filled at 25.11. Currently red.

• MTCH — 1,500 shares, filled at 38.77. Also currently red.

Look at the second one. Below, I say I want MTCH on strength through 40. I’m in at 38.77 — under my own level. So my entry isn’t better than yours. It’s earlier, and right now it’s worse. Early is just wrong with a kinder word attached, and it’s showing up in the P&L as we speak.

The rule from here on: if I’m in a name, the setup says so. When I get out, the next letter says so — at the price I actually got out, not the one I wish I’d got.

Dollar sizes are mine, not a template. What matters is the percentage of your account, and that number is yours to work out — not mine to hand you.

$P911 — Porsche AG. The broken icon, trying to turn over.

Everyone wants to own the turnaround. Nobody wants to own the part right before it — where the numbers are still ugly and the story still sounds like an excuse.

Porsche has spent nearly two years — 469 days, 67 bars — carving a base between roughly 43 and 48 after falling out of the sky from 120. Textbook downtrend-into-base: the selling exhausts, the range gets boring, the last weak hands get shaken out. There was a clean washout under the range that got reclaimed — a spring — and price is now leaning on the top of the box.

• Entry: range top, on strength through ~48

• Primary target: ~55

• Secondary target: ~69, the full measured move — +21 points, +44% off the base

• Stop: ~41, below the reclaimed washout low

• Why: two years of base is stored energy, and a reclaimed shakeout plus a new operator at the wheel is how a left-for-dead marque re-rates — if the fundamentals show up.

The fundamentals, both sides — because that’s the entire point of this letter.

The case for: a margin-recovery story, with 2025 as the earnings trough and 2026 the start of the climb back. Fortress balance sheet, a new CEO out of Ferrari and McLaren who actually knows how to run a performance marque, a narrow moat, and a fair value pinned near €46 — roughly where it trades today.

The case against, and it isn’t small: China is soft and it’s 23% of revenue. US tariffs are a €700M hole. The ICE phase-out opens a volume vacuum with nothing bridging the gap. EPS fell 88% — €0.47 for FY25 against €3.94 — deliveries down 15%, double-digit margins don’t return until 2028 on the kind read, and Barclays has it flat-out Underweight.

So: a chart that’s set up sitting on top of a business that’s still bleeding, with the recovery two-plus years out. Small size, entry on confirmation, stop honored. You’re betting the turnaround starts — not that it’s already here.

$MTCH — Match Group. The turnaround that’s actually turning.

Most “turnarounds” are a story people tell while the chart keeps bleeding. Once in a while the tape starts agreeing with the story — and that’s the only version worth trading.

This is the setup I like best: the long box. Three and a half years of it — 139 bars, 973 days — chewed sideways between roughly 28 and 45 after falling out of the sky from 120. Now price has pushed to the top of the range, it’s trading above every moving average, and it’s coming with volume. That last part matters — a lift to the range top on rising volume is a different animal from one that drifts up on nothing.

• Entry: range top, on strength through ~40

• Target: ~47, into the shelf above

• Stop: ~34, back inside the box

• Why: three and a half years of stored energy, price finally above all the averages with volume behind it, and the fundamentals turning at the same time — chart and business pointing the same direction is the whole trade.

The case underneath — and where it could break.

What’s working: Tinder registrations have turned up for the first time in two years — the actual metric everyone was waiting on. Hinge is growing 26%, EBITDA margin sits near 40%, the stock is cheap at roughly 8x free cash flow, there’s an 8% buyback shrinking the float, and a new CEO whose turnaround is starting to show in the numbers rather than the slides.

Where it could break: a first uptick in registrations is one data point, not a trend — one soft quarter and the “turn” narrative unwinds fast. Match is a mature business in a category people worry is structurally fading, and “cheap” can stay cheap for a long time if growth doesn’t follow. The buyback flatters EPS but doesn’t fix the top line. The chart and the story line up right now — the risk is that the story was early.

So: strong setup on top of a business that’s genuinely improving, with the honest caveat that “improving” is still young. Size it like a breakout that can fail — because plenty do.

$TXRH — Texas Roadhouse. Two years in a box, knocking on the lid.

A good restaurant can always get more expensive. Or not — which is rather the point.

I like this one. Fundamentally solid business that has spent two years grinding sideways in a slightly sagging channel, roughly 160 to 195. Price is at the upper rail right now.

• Entry: not chasing the touch. I want to see some churn at the upper boundary first — price loitering under the lid instead of bouncing off it — and I’ll take the long before the breakout, not after it.

• Target: ~235

• Stop: 175 as the base case; will be tightened depending on how that churn shapes up.

• Why: two years of range builds fuel, and whoever has been selling that ceiling eventually runs out of stock to sell.

One thing on management: breakouts fail more often than the textbooks admit, so this position gets managed actively, not set-and-forget.

$KHC — Kraft Heinz. The terminally ill patient.

Some stocks are dying for years and never quite get around to it. Once in a while, one of them gets up and walks.

This patient has cost me real money several times over the past five years — every “bottom” turned out to be a landing, not a floor. But the multi-year downtrend has tightened into a falling wedge, price has stopped making new lows, and it’s now pushing at the upper boundary. When a chart everyone has left for dead stops going down, I start paying attention.

• Entry: ~25, on the break of the wedge

• Target: ~28

• Stop: ~22.3

• Why: three years of sellers finally look tired, and nobody on the street is positioned for this thing going up.

Resurrections are rare and I’ve paid tuition on this name before — so the size is small and the stop is honored, not negotiated.

Same frame every week: this is what I'm watching and how I think about it — not advice, not a signal service, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. I've been getting things wrong since 2006, and I log every result, the green and the red. Your size, your stops, your account.