Wrong since 2006, and honest about it.
Every Monday, the setups I’m actually watching. Ticker, entry, target, stop, one line on why. Ten to twenty of them, and the ones I’m already in are marked as such — at the price I really paid, not the one I wish I’d paid.
Then the tab. Every call from the week before, settled. Hit, stopped, or never triggered. Running total underneath. Nothing edited, nothing quietly deleted.
Red weeks get the same font size as green ones. If a setup dies, it dies in public.
Why that matters
There is no shortage of people showing you charts. There is a shortage of people showing you the charts that cost them money.
The man in your feed with the 90% win rate has the same edge you do — he just has a delete key. I don’t. Almost twenty years in, the only number worth trusting from anyone is this one: of all the calls you made out loud, how many would you still show me a year later? For most people the answer is “the good ones.”
So the whole letter is built around the tab. It’s the reason to be here, and it’s the thing that will eventually make me look bad. Both of those are the point.
Who’s writing
Almost twenty years in the market.
Six screeners run before five in the morning — crypto and roughly three thousand US names. Then I go through what they spit out with my own eyes. Some mornings that’s a hundred charts. Some mornings it’s fifteen hundred.
It’s mining. You move tonnes of rock to find a handful of stones, and you do it again the next day, and most of what you haul up is rock. Nobody writes newsletters about the rock. I count it, because the rock is the job — the stones are just what’s left when you’re honest about the rest.
The machine finds candidates. A human finds trades. And a human is also the one who gets it wrong, which is the other half of what you’re reading.
I’m not new, I’m not lucky, and I’m not going to pretend the scars are strategy
What this is not
Not advice. Not a signal service. Not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. This is what I’m watching and how I think about it — nothing more. My size is mine and means nothing for your account. Your size, your stops, your money, your call.
If you want someone to tell you what to do, there’s a whole internet of that, and it’s cheaper.
What arrives
Monday — the setups, and last week’s tab, settled.
Thursday — a short midweek check. What’s moved, what’s broken, what I got wrong already.
Free, for now. Some of it will go paid later. The tab stays public either way — a scoreboard you can’t see isn’t a scoreboard.
